Svpressa.ru’s Sergey Ishchenko published an interesting piece on VKO late last Friday. He wrote that Space Troops Commander, General-Lieutenant Oleg Ostapenko recently reported to the Federation Council on the creation of VKO, making it clear that Ostapenko’s branch, as reported earlier and elsewhere, will be the basis of Russia’s unified VKO due to stand up by 1 December.
Ishchenko makes these additional points:
- The long-range missile for the S-400 is still in testing.
- He doubts the S-500 will be delivered in 2015.
- His interviewee believes the new Aerospace Defense Troops will get all or some of Russia’s SAM force from the VVS.
- The interviewee thinks the S-500 is on schedule.
Ishchenko says the debate over the lead for VKO didn’t necessarily center on what’s best to protect Russia’s security, but rather on who would receive new resources and general officer billets.
The Air Forces argued they were best suited to lead it, but the Space Troops apparently argued persuasively that they were better prepared to handle Russia’s future transatmospheric threats.
Now, a quick editorial aside from Ishchenko’s narrative . . . this decision is probably a good thing for the Air Forces, which already have their hands full and don’t need more missions. They stand to lose only some part of the surface-to-air missile business (which hasn’t always been a core mission for them anyway). And the VVS will benefit by concentrating on their most important tasks.
But back to Ishchenko . . . he provides a fine review of the USSR’s space weapons and space defense efforts, which, arguably, met or exceeded those of the United States. He notes President Yeltsin’s 1993 decree on creating VKO, for which no one moved so much as a finger, at least partially because of the country’s economic and budgetary predicament at that time.
Then Ishchenko gets more interesting. He details the danger posed to Russia by U.S. “noncontact” wars in Iraq (sic), Yugoslavia, and Libya. These, however, are really wars of the past rather than the future, he says. Ishchenko moves on to the threat of Prompt Global Strike.
He talks about a hypersonic bomber cruising at Mach 5-7 speeds and altitudes up to 30,000 meters, beyond the reach of Russia’s current SAMs. Of course, IOC isn’t before 2025, but Moscow needs to start thinking today about how to counter it. Meanwhile, the state-of-the-art Russian SAM, the S-400, is barely fielded and its extended range missile is still being tested. Its successor, the S-500, is supposed to be ready in 2015, but Ishchenko is skeptical.
The end of Ishchenko’s article is a brief interview with the chief editor of the journal Vozdushno-kosmicheskaya oborona, Mikhail Khodarenok. Khodarenok’s a retired colonel, professional air defender, graduate of the General Staff Academy, and former staffer of the General Staff’s Main Operations Directorate (GOU). In the late 1990s and early 2000s, he was an outstanding military journalist for Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye, but by 2003 or 2004, he left for VKO and Voyenno-promyshlennyy kuryer, both wholly owned by air defense system designer Almaz-Antey.
Ishchenko asks what Khodarenok knows about the process of creating the Aerospace Defense Troops. The latter hems about not having access to secret directives and documents before concluding:
“But I can say that much has already been determined. In particular, it’s decided that Space Troops will be the basis of VKO. Although there were other proposals. The Air Forces, in particular, proposed taking their service as the basis.”
Asked about this tug-of-war for VKO within the Defense Ministry, he says:
“And this is a beloved Russian pasttime. In our Armed Forces, they are constantly getting rid of something or resubordinating. What happened, for example, with army aviation. In my memory, five times it was given to the Air Forces, then returned to the Ground Troops. Usually then five years of complete confusion. Billions lost. And it all begins again.”
Asked what will be in VKO:
“The basis is the Space Troops. Evidently, the surface-to-air missile troops (ZRV) will be transferred to them from the VVS. Fully or partially. This isn’t determined yet.”
Finally, asked whether Almaz-Antey General Director Igor Ashurbeyli was replaced because of problems with the S-400’s long-range missile or issues in the S-500’s development, Khodarenok says:
“Ashurbeyli’s resignation was not connected with engineering problems in any way. Neither with difficulties on the S-500, nor on the S-400.”
“I have my suppositions on this score. But I don’t want to share them. I repeat: the most important thing is that the S-500’s development is on schedule. And this system really will very much help the country’s aerospace defense.”
Russian Defense Policy 