Friday’s Nezavisimoye voyennoye obozreniye editorial assures readers the end of S-300PS production — combined with a lack of contracts for the S-400 — won’t bring the apocalypse or, at least, a threat to Russia’s administrative and industrial heartland.
Like others, NVO is wrestling with the meaning of former Almaz-Antey General Director Igor Ashurbeyli’s most recent words.
Despite the sturm und drang over the S-300’s demise elsewhere in the media, NVO takes the rational tack. There’s nothing new in Ashurbeyli’s statements. Everything’s normal, it says. Almaz-Antey could have upgraded the S-300P Favorit forever, but proposed S-500 development instead. It’s natural and sensible to draw S-300 production down to a close.
And, after all, the S-400 is entering service, and the Vityaz and S-500 are in development. The medium-range Vityaz will replace the S-300PS. Morfey’s in development for short-range protection of the most important targets. And Ashurbeyli says “it’s proposed” that the S-500 will be complete in 2015.
Here, NVO’s editors shift to a less optimistic, perhaps a more realistic tack:
“It’s true, we all know that in our country it’s always a great distance from plans to their fulfillment. In that great distance, sometimes not just ruts and potholes arise, but even chasms. Here not everything with full-blooded use of the S-400 system is clear and obvious. According to the reports of both Ashurbeyli and the VVS CINC General Zelin, there are big problems with the long-range missile, and also at Moscow factory “Avangard,” where this serial production goes on, according to media accounts, there are no orders for it. It could be because it’s not in shape. And the “400,” on which great hopes rest today, as a transitional system from the S-300PS to Vityaz and the S-500, doesn’t justify these expectations? It isn’t excluded that it’s for exactly this reason that the Defense Ministry no longer wants to order it? Why spend money and buy something that doesn’t meet the tactical-technical requirements which the customers laid down for the system? Here the generals wouldn’t lack common sense.”
But, says NVO, they could go forward with the S-400’s short- and medium-range missiles, couldn’t they? Delays in the S-400 contract threaten to cause failures in establishing the country’s defenses.
With a two-year production cycle, and no contracts in 2011, it’s naive to expect the appearance of new systems in 2013, according to NVO’s editors. What’s more, there’s no absolute certainty that Vityaz and Morfey will succeed in this time frame, or that some kind of real basis for developing the S-500 will be laid.
NVO concludes:
“And so here passions for the “300” are understandable. But it’s only desired that they shouldn’t take on an alarmist character. It isn’t necessary to frighten anyone.”
Russian Defense Policy 