Daily Archives: February 7, 2010

Old and New Doctrines on Dangers and Threats

So what’s the net result in the change from the old to the new military doctrine when it comes to military dangers and military threats?

Ten years later, the new describes a world that’s more multipolar, with emerging powers, and an international security system that’s less effective than a decade ago, from Russia’s official viewpoint.

The new doctrine is a bit more nuanced, including as it does both dangers and threats, not just threats like the old.

Some themes persist from old to new:  foreign military forces surround Russia and present a danger if not a threat; areas of conflict surround Russia and have the same effect; the disruption of Russia’s national C2 systems is a threat; and there is worry, although somewhat less than in 2000, about illegal armed formations of radicals, extremists, and separatists.

Some themes surprisingly dropped away as threats:  large-scale organized crime, contraband or illegal weapons trading operations; foreign information operations; and discrimination against Russians abroad.

The most important new themes, not surprisingly given the events of the last 10 years, as military dangers could be NATO not just expanding but globalizing and the development and deployment of strategic missile defenses and strategic nonnuclear precision weapons.