For Russia Day on 12 June, President Vladimir Putin promoted a number of armed forces and other “power” ministry officers to higher ranks.
Click on this link to see those promoted in Putin’s decree along with as many positions as could be identified for them. The link goes to an Excel file, click “View full-size workbook” and you’ll see the spreadsheet on Microsoft’s Skydrive site.
Promotions from February remain in the file as well.
Defense News has posted its annual list of the world’s top 100 defense companies for 2012.
The same seven Russian firms appear on the list. But against the backdrop of a declining international defense market, the performance of Russian companies last year is interesting.
They did fairly well, except for airplane makers.
Almaz-Antey’s reported defense revenue rebounded strongly in 2012 – by 62 percent — to make it 14 overall. It moved up from 21 last year.
Helicopters of Russia’s revenue jumped 32 percent to put it at 24. It was 44 last year.
Sukhoy’s revenue was down 8 percent. But down less than others. With the market declining, it came in 43rd, up from 52nd last year.
United Engine-building’s revenue increased nearly 50 percent to make it number 49, up from 55.
Irkut’s revenue and position declined, more than 18 percent to make it 62 versus 53 a year ago.
RTI Sistemy reported a 12 percent gain to be 80th instead of 100th last year.
RSK MiG was down 17 percent and came in at 93rd.
Some significant news from late June and early July, largely (or entirely) overlooked by Western observers . . .
Designer Kashin Shows Shoygu the Iskander-M (photo: Mil.ru)
Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu presided over the first delivery of a “brigade set” of Iskander-M (SS-26 / Stone) short-range ballistic missile systems at Kapustin Yar on 28 June.
According to Mil.ru, uniformed and civilian Defense Ministry officials, industry representatives, and journalists were present for the test range ceremony.
The delivery followed the MOD’s announcement last month that Iskander-M system components will no longer be supplied separately to the army, only in “brigade sets.” The military department also reported a “long-term” contract for deliveries of the missile system until 2017 was concluded with the producer.
A complete “brigade set” includes missiles, launchers, transport-loaders, command-staff, data processing, check-out, and maintenance vehicles, and training systems.
Missile Troops at Attention in Front of Iskander-M Launchers (photo: Mil.ru)
Shoygu reiterated that the MOD intends to reequip all ten Ground Forces missile brigades with Iskander-M before the end of 2017. Ten brigades should deploy at least 120 missiles, not including reloads. The Iskander-M is the only weapons system to be 100 percent procured before 2020, according to the MOD’s recently publicized Action Plan.
At Kapustin Yar, Iskander-M designer Valeriy Kashin of the Kolomna Machine-Building Design Bureau told reporters the military will receive another “brigade set” before year’s end, according to Nezavisimaya gazeta and Komsomolskaya pravda.
But completing the military’s order in less than five years could prove difficult for Russia’s defense industries.
NG reported Kashin said enterprises working on the Iskander-M have to “intensify” their activities several fold to meet the MOD deadline. Seventeen specialized manufacturers are scheduled to upgrade and retool under a 40 billion ruble ($1.2 billion) investment effort.
However, actual reconstruction of production lines will not begin until 2014, according to online daily Vzglyad.
Shoygu told those in attendance at Kapustin Yar the most important step now is establishing the “essential infrastructure” for the deployment of new arms and equipment. He reemphasized this in a 1 July MOD videoconference by calling for special attention to synchronizing the delivery of weapons with the construction of bases and other support infrastructure where they will be deployed (and with the training of those who will operate them).
The defense minister stated that the MOD currently awaits completion of military construction projects worth 314 billion rubles ($9.7 billion). He said he wants the backlog eliminated before November.
An NVO correspondent present at Kapustin Yar reports that the just delivered Iskander-M brigade’s new facilities will be complete in September.
The newest Iskander-M brigade is likely intended for the Southern Military District, which presently only has one battalion of the new missiles.
Shoygu is right to focus on arranging the appropriate infrastructure for Russia’s new armaments because it has traditionally neglected support and lifecycle investments in its military equipment.
Posted in Defense Industry, Force Modernization, Ground Troops
Tagged Brigade, Iskander-M, SRBM, SS-26, SSM, STONE, Valeriy Kashin
Missile Cruiser Moskva Fires SS-N-12 (photo: Mil.ru)
Definitely don’t be on deck for this. Mil.ru covered Black Sea Fleet flagship Slava-class CG Moskva (121) firing one of its deck-mounted SS-N-12 ASCMs during inter-fleet training in the Atlantic this week.
TK Zvezda provided video of this firing and lots of others.
SS-N-12 Launch (photo: TK Zvezda)
This might be one of the few times (possibly only the second!) in Moskva’s career that it’s fired its primary weapon system. In 2008, New Times covered what it reported as the very first.
This seems somewhat improbable. Moskva, née Slava, surely fired its reputed “carrier-killing” SS-N-12s at some time during the zenith / denouement of the Cold War in the mid- and late 1980s. There also had to be acceptance-related firings by the lead unit of the guided missile cruiser class during the early 1980s.
However, very casual research leads one to conclude that most Russian Navy cruise missile firings come from subs or “small missile ships” and “missile boats.”
Nevertheless, Moskva heads Russian Navy ships currently training and bound for a number of Western hemisphere port calls. No one can really deny that the Navy is getting more miles under the keel than five or ten years ago.
Posted in Navy, Training and Exercises
Tagged Bazalt, Black Sea Fleet, CG, Guided-Missile Cruiser, Moskva, P-500, Slava, SS-N-12
One must report the apparently contradictory along with the confirmatory . . . Mil.ru has reported GOMU’s final results for the spring 2013 callup.
GOMU indicates that, as of 12 July, it summoned more than 700,000 draft-age males, with more than 692,000 appearing as requested.
The order to induct 153,200 men in President Putin’s decree was, of course, fully accomplished.
It must have been hard getting 118,000 men in front of draft commissions during the final ten days of the callup.
Это какой-то штурм . . . .
Putin and Shoygu (photo: mil.ru)
President and Glavk Vladimir Putin ordered Defense Minister Shoygu to conduct another readiness exercise yesterday. This time in the Eastern MD, to include the Pacific Fleet.
Putin hinted he might show up in the Far East to watch.
The Supreme CINC directed that particular attention should be paid to transferring large masses of troops to assembly points, to transportation support, and to logistical and medical support.
Putin ordered Shoygu to:
“Also conduct all necessary measures relative to rescue at sea and the rescue of transportation means, including the submarine fleet.”
Apparently, the Glavk’s bitter (but important) memory of August 12, 2000 is jogged at this time of year.
He said he regards this year’s readiness checks as highly effective and extremely useful in eliminating problems.
Today Mil.ru indicated the exercise has started, and expanded a bit. It includes not only the Eastern MD and Pacific Fleet, but the Central MD, LRA, and VTA.
The “formations and units of the Central MD’s Novosibirsk large formation” (i.e. the 41st CAA) will play a notional enemy role.
The ex aims to evaluate sub-units’ readiness to fulfill designated missions, the skill level of personnel, technical readiness, and proper outfitting with weapons and equipment.
As in others, the readiness ex will feature marches (convoys) to unfamiliar ranges far from permanent bases for two-sided tactical play with combat firings.
It will test the operational mobility of a formation (brigade) to a distance of more than 3,000 km. Troops will move by rail, ship, and VTA. More than 80,000 personnel, 1,000 tank and armored vehicles, 130 aircraft, and 70 ships will participate. The drill concludes on 20 July.
Mil.ru also covered a high command videocon devoted to the ex. Shoygu said up to 160,000 troops might be involved in one way or another.
Posted in Training and Exercises
Tagged Central MD, Готовность, Проверка, Eastern MD, Inspection, LRA, Pacific Fleet, Readiness, VTA
New Conscripts Depart for the Army (photo: Mil.ru)
Another posting hiatus officially ends.
A recent Defense Ministry press-release on the conclusion of this spring’s draft campaign contained the following:
“According to the situation as of 2 July 2013, more than 582,800 men were summoned to proceedings connected with the call-up, to which more than 574,900 citizens came.”
President Putin’s March decree stipulated 153,200 men would be inducted into the armed forces in the first half of 2013.
We’ve not often seen figures on the number of young Russian men receiving a summons to appear at local draft commissions during conscription campaigns.
A check turned up only two more recent instances where the summons number was specified:
The drop from 800,000+ to 500,000+ illustrates the abrupt break in the number of men liable to conscription which occurred between 2008 and 2013, i.e. the “demographic hole” caused by lower birthrates in the 1990s.
Still, it shows consistency — it appears the Defense Ministry (if it meets its induction target) conscripts 25 percent of the men it summons to draft commissions.
And the difference between summonses and appearances shows what looks like the number of draft evaders for that half year (i.e. 8,000 or 11,000).
It’s interesting to compare the summons number to the number of available 18-year-old males.
The data below came from the U.S. Census Bureau, but the birth year in the left column was changed to indicate the year group will turn (or turned) 18. The age column is the year group’s age in 2013. According to this, you can see the nadir of the “hole” doesn’t come until 2018 and the climb out is long and slow. The number of males born doesn’t even return to the level of 1990 (shown here as 2008) until some time after 2031.
Draft Age Males, 2008-2031
So, this spring the Defense Ministry summoned 582,800 men against 718,070 available 18-year-olds. Obviously, a significant number of those summoned are probably 19, 20, etc., and were summoned before, in 2012 or earlier. And presumably, some who will be, but aren’t yet, 18 this year can’t be summoned until the fall 2013 draft.
The point being that the draft net has to be expanded considerably to bring in two groups of nearly 600,000 (even with many repeaters) to be considered for military service. And it’s clear many brought in for the second or third time have solid legal deferments. Some of them are, of course, drafted later. Witness the Defense Ministry’s fondness for citing the percentage of draftees with complete higher education.
But it’s certainly harder for the military to draft an older man than it is one just turning 18 this year. Economically speaking, the marginal cost of inducting a 22- or 24-year-old is much higher. It requires greater effort on the commissariat’s part and the average return on the time invested is much lower.
It’s hard to guess the mechanics of the draft, but here’s a whack.
As stated above, the Defense Ministry puts 582,800 men in front of draft boards to find 153,200 it will accept. Of those 718,070 18-year-olds in 2013, presumably only half have birthdays allowing them to be drafted in the spring. So, in a perfect world, that’s 359,035 of the men needed at the draft commission. And 223,765 are still needed.
The Defense Ministry looks first to this year’s 19-year-olds. There are 730,049 of them. But many served, or will have served, in 2012-2013. The draft campaigns last year inducted 155,570 and 140,140 for a total of 295,710 men.
Here’s where real guesswork begins. If 200,000 18-year-olds were drafted last year, there are only potentially 530,049 19-year-olds to send some of those other 223,765 summonses to this year. And if deferred, their deferments probably still hold this year. And the undrafted 19-year-olds will probably need to be summoned again in fall 2013 even though another 359,035 men will turn 18 in the second half of the year. Those 19-year-olds might be considered for induction in place of some large number of 18-year-olds already picked for the military in the spring.
But you get the picture of how rapidly the military’s human resources diminish.
Bye Mom (photo: Mil.ru)
It’s far from a complete picture, but an interesting and essential part of the Russian military manpower dilemma.
Of course, the Defense Ministry has the long-term answer for its declining conscription resources: professional contract service. The trick there is to make it work.
Russian Defense Policy 